The Root of the Problem, Counterfeit Debt

In other posts, I have written long expositions of why we are in a financial crisis. I have decided to write several short posts on the subject as well.

The root of the problem is counterfeit money. I’m sure that’s a statement worthy of a double take for most people, but it is true.

In today’s world, there is not very much difference between debt/credit and money. If you write a check to someone saying your bank owes them $100, that’s pretty similar to giving them a $100 bill. Businesses buy and sell debt like they buy or sell anything else.

Now, a relatively easy way to make money is to convince someone that some debt is good, and sell them the debt. If you know the debt is bad, this is really a form of counterfeiting. For those interested, here’s another take on the problem.

An everyday example of counterfeiting debt is writing a bad check.

Now there are three forms of debt we care about:

• Debt that will be paid back, or good debt.
• Debt that is good debt now, but will go bad later.
• Debt that is bad now.

And they directly correspond to:

• Money.
• Counterfeit money that will magically become worthless in the future.
• Counterfeit money that people realise is counterfeit, and won’t accept.

The housing boom, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, etc. was all about making counterfeit money, whether it be intentional or unintentional. Mostly, it was in some grey area really close to “intentional”. Now, those same institutions dealing in this counterfeit money have been caught by their own creation.

That was the root of the problem.

The problem now is that lots of institutions are now holding counterfeit money that has turned bad, and they do not want to admit that they are bankrupt. Similarly, they are afraid to do business with other institutions, because they suspect those institutions have the same problem. They like to claim that they can’t sell their debt at the correct price, and that their “assets are illiquid”. That is not true, if they were willing to sell those assets for what they were worth, they would sell like hotcakes.

Any bailout attempt that does not force businesses to come clean about how much counterfeit money they hold is doomed to failure. Markets will be frozen until trust is restored, and trust will be restored when institutions are forced to come clean, and not a second sooner.

Authorities are trying to paper over the problem by providing “liquidity”; that is, lending money for short periods to those in trouble. This is a fool’s errand, as I will cover in another post.